tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15377771.post3506071870349921570..comments2024-03-13T03:27:50.582-04:00Comments on Smart Football: Speculations on play-calling on first, second, and third and tenChrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07204245083374821812noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15377771.post-41241803795276804842009-04-10T17:56:00.000-04:002009-04-10T17:56:00.000-04:00I have to agree with stan in theory. Guaranteed 4 ...I have to agree with stan in theory. Guaranteed 4 yards simply means you always score, you never fail to convert to a 1st down and your defense gets plenty of rest!<BR/><BR/>Of course it is quite simply impossible, but I think stan is exaggerating to elaborate.<BR/><BR/>PAUL.Paulnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15377771.post-20092771997373376512009-04-04T14:18:00.000-04:002009-04-04T14:18:00.000-04:00Stan, I disagree with that last point. Averages ca...Stan, I disagree with that last point. Averages can be misleading but they also dominate. I think it's be incredibly difficult to find a risk profile where an 8 yard per play was inferior to a 4 yard per play, even where the 4 was guaranteed. Now, maybe -- just maybe -- you could do it for 4 to 4.5 or maybe 5, but not 8.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07204245083374821812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15377771.post-82645742575374783602009-04-04T13:43:00.000-04:002009-04-04T13:43:00.000-04:00I think you are right that the average is part of ...I think you are right that the average is part of the issue of the gain on 2d and ten. And a sample which overweights bad teams. You also have to factor that defensive personnel packages and playcalling is a lot easier on 2d and 10.<BR/><BR/>Averages are really deceptive in football. We'd win a lot more games with an offense that made 4 yards every play than one which averaged 8 per play.<BR/><BR/>stanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15377771.post-42762313192607984012009-03-31T22:27:00.000-04:002009-03-31T22:27:00.000-04:00So could you do a sample where you take ten-fiftee...So could you do a sample where you take ten-fifteen different examples of the X-10 situations from each team, and run that same information back?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15377771.post-39267295936044636992009-03-31T11:29:00.000-04:002009-03-31T11:29:00.000-04:00"But I'm struck that on second down the yards per ..."But I'm struck that on second down the yards per pass attempt drops by nearly a full yard while the yards per run goes up only .2: why does the defense get so much better on second down? Is the data skewed to losers? Is play-calling worse on second down"<BR/><BR/>I think the skewed for bad teams is almost certainly a factor. Bad teams are the ones that end up in second and 10 the most.bradnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15377771.post-85370821493307313872009-03-31T10:02:00.000-04:002009-03-31T10:02:00.000-04:00It has always been my philosophy, that ,if I was f...It has always been my philosophy, that ,if I was faced with 2nd and 10, that after the 2nd down play I wanted to face at worst 3rd and 10. I want to get some kind of positive yards, but I absolutely want to make sure that I don't lose yards on the play. I'm three step dropping on a pass with usually 1 read or a fade. If it's not there , let's throw it away and try 3rd and 10. Most times we call a run. <BR/><BR/>To tell you the truth I hate 2nd and 10. Play calling that down always brings stress.<BR/><BR/>Enjoy the site. Good job.Saddawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14561980469874196315noreply@blogger.com